When looking for upset picks in the first round of the 2023 NCAA men's tournament, No. 11 Providence, No. 12 VCU and No. 13 Furman were among the most popular at each of their seed lines for Men's Bracket Challenge Game players. We defined upset as teams five seeds lower or worse — so for the first round that means starting with No. 11 vs. No. 6.
Here's how the numbers break down for each seed:
16 vs. 1
Matchup | Upset pick percentage |
---|---|
No. 16 Howard vs. No. 1 Kansas | 3.37 |
No. 16 Texas A&M-CC vs. No. 1 Alabama | 2.58 |
No. 16 FDU vs. No. 1 Purdue | 2.36 |
No. 16 Northern Kentucky vs. No. 1 Houston | 2.14 |
Nothing all toonotable here, as these numbers are rather similar to 2022's. However, it's interesting to note that the most-picked 16 seed is the one going against the defending champion. Oddly enough, the same thing happened last year, when Norfolk State was the most popular 16 facing reigning champion Baylor.
15 vs. 2
Matchup | Upset pick percentage |
---|---|
No. 15 Colgate vs. No. 2 Texas | 7.41 |
No. 15 Vermont vs. No. 2 Marquette | 5.60 |
No. 15 UNC Asheville vs. No. 2 UCLA | 4.42 |
No. 15 Princeton vs. No. 2 Arizona | 4.13 |
Colgate stands out here, as the Raiders' percentage is better than the most-picked 15 last year (Jacksonville State at 4.41 vs. Auburn). This is Colgate's fourth consecutive tournament appearance, with the program getting a 14 or 15 each time. The Raiders are 0-3 in this streak of tournament bids, though they lost to No. 3 Wisconsin by only 7 last year.
Oh, and if you're wondering about where Saint Peter's landed, the Peaco*cks were picked to beat No. 2 Kentucky on only 3 percent of MBCG brackets — the third-lowest mark for No. 15 seeds. And we all know what happened next.
14 vs. 3
Matchup | Upset pick percentage |
---|---|
No. 14 UCSB vs. No. 3 Baylor | 10.35 |
No. 14 Montana State vs. No. 3 Kansas State | 10.17 |
No. 14 Kennesaw State vs. No. 3 Xavier | 7.39 |
No. 14 Grand Canyon vs. No. 3 Gonzaga | 4.67 |
Last season, Colgate led the 14 seeds at nearly 14 percent, so the most-popular 14 isn't as well-liked this year. No 14 seed won in last year's tournament, but Abilene Christian upset Texas in 2021.
13 vs. 4
Matchup | Upset pick percentage |
---|---|
No. 13 Furman vs. No. 4 Virginia | 25.62 |
No. 13 Kent State vs. No. 4 Indiana | 19.02 |
No. 13 Louisiana vs. No. 4 Tennessee | 13.23 |
No. 13 Iona vs. No. 4 UConn | 11.31 |
Here's where you'll see a noticeable rise in upset selections. All four 13 seeds are getting at least 10 percent, though none are reaching last year's South Dakota State (38.36 percent).
No 13 seed came away with a win last year, but there had been three consecutive NCAA tournaments with a winner: Buffalo and Marshall in 2018, UC Irvine in 2019 and Ohio and North Texas in 2021.
12 vs. 5
Matchup | Upset pick percentage |
---|---|
No. 12 VCU vs. No. 5 Saint Mary's | 37.57 |
No. 12 Charleston vs. No. 5 San Diego State | 33.33 |
No. 12 Oral Roberts vs. No. 5 Duke | 25.22 |
No. 12 Drake vs. No. 5 Miami (Fla.) | 23.04 |
Here we go. Last March Madness, "only" two No. 12 seeds topped 20 percent. This time, all four cross that mark. Two are even in the 30s, led by VCU at 37.57percent. These four teams know how to win, too, as they average 28.75 wins between them.
In a fun twist, the 12 seeds went 2-2 last year in the first round, but the wins came against the two least-picked 12s (New Mexico State at Richmond).
11 vs. 6
Matchup | Upset pick percentage |
---|---|
No. 11 Providence vs. No. 6 Kentucky | 34.58 |
No. 11 Pittvs. No. 6 Iowa State | 33.77 |
No. 11 NC State vs. No. 6 Creighton | 30.14 |
No. 11 Arizona State vs. No. 6 TCU | 15.18 |
The 11s are looking very similar to the 12s. Last year, two 11 seeds were at the 50-percent marker: Michigan and Virginia Tech. In the end, Michigan advanced, as did Iowa State (28.12 percent to beat LSU). Remember, the Pitt and Arizona State selections could also come from people who thought Mississippi State and Nevada would win in the First Four but didn't change their picks before brackets locked.
Historically, No. 11s are where Cinderella can be found in the Final Four — 2011 VCU and 2021 UCLA have even gone from the First Four to the Final Four.
2023 NCAA tournament final scores, highlights
Tuesday, March 14 (First Four in Dayton, Ohio)
- No. 16Texas A&M CC 75, No. 16 SE Missouri State 71| Watch highlights
- No. 11 Pitt 60,No. 11 Mississippi St. 59| Watch highlights
Wednesday, March 15(First Four in Dayton, Ohio)
- No. 16 FDU 84,No. 16Texas Southern61| Watch highlights
- No. 11 Arizona State 98, No. 11 Nevada 73| Watch highlights
Thursday, March 16 (Round of 64)
- No. 8 Maryland 67, West Virginia 65| Watch highlights
- No. 13 Furman 68, No. 4 Virginia 67| Watch highlights
- No. 7 Missouri 76,No. 10 Utah State 65| Watch highlights
- No. 1 Kansas 96, No. 16. Howard 68| Watch highlights
- No. 1 Alabama 96, No. 16 Texas A&M CC 75| Watch highlights
- No. 5 San Diego State 63, No. 12 College of Charleston 57| Watch highlights
- No. 15 Princeton 59,No. 2 Arizona 55| Watch highlights
- No. 8 Arkansas 73, No. 9 Illinois 63| Watch highlights
- No. 9 Auburn 83,No. 8 Iowa 75| Watch highlights
- No. 5 Duke 74, No. 12 Oral Roberts 51| Watch highlights
- No. 2 Texas 81, No. 15 Colgate 61| Watch highlights
- No. 7 Northwestern 75, No. 10 Boise State 67| Watch highlights
- No. 1 Houston 63, No. 16 Northern Kentucky 52| Watch highlights
- No. 4 Tennessee 58, No. 13 Louisiana 55| Watch highlights
- No. 10 Penn State 76,No. 7 Texas A&M 59| Watch highlights
- No. 2 UCLA 86, No. 15 UNC Asheville 53| Watch highlights
Friday, March 17(Round of 64)
- No. 7 Michigan State 72, No. 10 USC 62| Watch highlights
- No. 3 Xavier 72, No. 14 Kennesaw State 67| Watch highlights
- No. 3 Baylor 74, No. 14 UC Santa Barbara 56| Watch highlights
- No. 5 Saint Mary's 63, No. 12 VCU 51| Watch highlights
- No. 2 Marquette 78,No. 15 Vermont 61| Watch highlights
- No. 11 Pitt 59,No. 6 Iowa State 41| Watch highlights
- No. 6 Creighton 72, No. 11 NC State 63| Watch highlights
- No. 4 UConn 87, No. 13 Iona 63| Watch highlights
- No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson 63,No. 1 Purdue 58| Watch highlights
- No. 6 Kentucky 61,No. 11 Providence 53| Watch highlights
- No. 5 Miami (Fla.) 63, No. 12 Drake 56| Watch highlights
- No. 3 Gonzaga 82, No. 14 Grand Canyon 70| Watch highlights
- No. 9 Florida Atlantic 66,No. 8 Memphis 65| Watch highlights
- No. 3 Kansas State 77, No. 14 Montana State 65| Watch highlights
- No. 4 Indiana 71, No. 13 Kent State 60| Watch highlights
- No. 6 TCU 72, No. 11 Arizona State 70| Watch highlights
Saturday, March 18 (Round of 32)
- No. 5 San Diego State 75, No. 13 Furman 52| Watch highlights
- No. 4 Tennessee 65,No. 5 Duke 52| Watch highlights
- No. 8 Arkansas 72,No. 1 Kansas 71| Watch highlights
- No. 15 Princeton 78, No. 7 Missouri 63| Watch highlights
- No. 1 Houston 81,No. 9 Auburn 64| Watch highlights
- No. 2 Texas 71,No. 10 Penn State 66| Watch highlights
- No. 2 UCLA 68, No. 7 Northwestern 63| Watch highlights
- No. 1 Alabama73,No. 8 Maryland 51| Watch highlights
Sunday, March 19(Round of 32)
- No. 3 Xavier 84, No. 11 Pitt 73| Watch highlights
- No. 3 Kansas State 75,No. 6 Kentucky 69| Watch highlights
- No. 7 Michigan State 69, No. 2 Marquette 60| Watch highlights
- No. 4 UConn 70,No. 5 Saint Mary's 55| Watch highlights
- No. 6 Creighton 85, No. 3 Baylor 76| Watch highlights
- No. 9 Florida Atlantic 78, No. 16 FDU 70| Watch highlights
- No. 5 Miami (Fla.) 85, No. 4 Indiana 69| Watch highlights
- No. 3 Gonzaga 84,No. 6 TCU 81| Watch highlights
Thursday, March 23 (Sweet 16)
- No. 3 Kansas State 98,No. 7 Michigan State 93 (OT)| Watch highlights
- No. 4 UConn 88,No. 8 Arkansas 65| Watch highlights
- No. 9 Florida Atlantic 62, No. 4 Tennessee 55| Watch highlights
- No. 3 Gonzaga 79, No. 2 UCLA 76| Watch highlights
Friday, March 24(Sweet 16)
- No. 5 San Diego State 71, No. 1 Alabama 64| Watch highlights
- No. 5Miami (Fla.) 89, No. 1 Houston 75| Watch highlights
- No. 6 Creighton 86,No. 15 Princeton 75| Watch highlights
- No. 2 Texas 83,No. 3 Xavier 71| Watch highlights
Saturday, March 25 (Elite 8)
- No. 9 Florida Atlantic 79, No. 3 Kansas State 76| Watch highlights
- No. 4 UConn 82, No. 3 Gonzaga 54| Watch highlights
Sunday, March 26(Elite 8)
- No. 5 San Diego State 57,No. 6 Creighton 56| Watch highlights
- No. 5 Miami (Fla.) 88, No. 2 Texas 81| Watch highlights
Saturday, April 1 (Final Four)
- No. 5 San Diego State 72,No. 9 Florida Atlantic 71| Watch highlights
- No. 4 UConn 72,No. 5 Miami (Fla.) 59| Watch highlights
Monday, April 3 (National championship game)