New Mexico, Oregon and James Madison are the most popular upset picks for the 2024 March Madness men's tournament (2024)

Upsets are bound to happen in the first round of the NCAA men's basketball tournament.

They happen every year at every level of the bracket, but some are a little more surprising than others. Just look at the 2023 tournament. Another No. 16 team won in the first round when FDU beat No. 1 Purdue, No. 15 Princeton went to the Sweet 16 after the Tigers took down No. 2 Arizona and No. 13 Furman beat No. 4 Virginia

For 2024, Men's Bracket Challenge Game brackets have made their picks for the most likely upsets in the first round: No. 11 New Mexico over No. 6 Clemson andNo. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina.The Loboswere picked to win on 47.54 percent of brackets — which is the fourth-highest ever in the BCG — while Oregon was the winner right behind at 47.34 percent.

James Madison (45.47 percent) was the highest No. 12 seed picked to win its first round game and the second-highest No. 12 ever picked to win its first-round matchup (only No. 12 Murray State in 2019 came in higher). Grand Canyon, a fellow No. 12 seed, was picked at 30.68 percent. Samford (26.73 percent) was the most-picked No. 13 seed. Morehead State (10.14 percent) earned the most upset nods for a No. 14 seed in this year's game.

Western Kentucky garnered 8.42 percent of picks for its first round game against No. 2 Marquette, which set a BCG record for a 15 seed. No. 15 Saint Peter's finished second behind WKU at 7.15 percent.

Finally, Longwood broke the BCG record for the highest-picked No. 16 seed in the first round. The Lancers earned 3.85 percent of picks for its match with No. 1 Houston. A No. 16 seed had never won a first round NCAA tournament game until 2018 and then again in 2023. Could lightning strike three times in six tournaments?

We define an "upset" as a team with a seed of five spots or worse, so a No. 10 over a No. 7 doesn't count.Here are all the upset breakdowns by seed.

16 vs. 1

The four least-picked upsets are, unsurprisingly, the No. 16 vs. No. 1 games. There have only been two No. 16 teams to win an NCAA tournament first-round game since 1985 — although both happened in the past five tournaments (2018 with UMBC and 2023 with FDU). While minimal, it is interesting to see players more bearish on Houston than any of the other No. 1 seeds.

15 vs. 2

No. 15 seed upsets over No. 2 seeds are all the rage nowadays. Western Kentucky percentageis the highestfor a No. 15 seed in BCG history.Players are also hoping Saint Peter's can rekindle its magical run for 2022. The Peaco*cks went to the Elite Eight as a No. 15 seed after they took down Kentucky, Murray State and Purdue.

14 vs. 3

Around 10 percentof players picked No. 14 Morehead State to win, although that number ranks below the top No. 14 upset picks from the 2023 tournament.

13 vs. 4

Well hello there, Samford. Almost 27 percentof brackets had the Bulldogs topKansas in the first round. That number rose throughout the week before brackets locked, too, as Jayhawks coach BillSelf announced leadingscorer Kevin McCullar Jr. would miss the tournament because of a knee injury.

12 vs. 5

James Madison's number isthe second-most for a No. 12 seed in the game's history.

McNeese finished third among its seed-mates to win in the first round but was also the only double-digit seed to get close to 1 percent of brackets to win the entire NCAA tournament.

11 vs. 6

Three No. 11 seeds received more than 44 percentin the first round. The No. 6 vs. No. 11 games were the closest to a 50-50 split among all first-round matchups. For reference, none of the No. 11 seeds in 2023 were picked by more than 34 percentof players. However, only one —Pittsburgh —won its first round game this past year.