March Madness: Best NCAA Tournament first-round upset picks and predictions (2024)

Cinderella stories are always a fun part of the Big Dance — especially so when we have projected those stories alongside underdog wagers. Below, we break down Tipico Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines and list the best first-round upset betsto cash in on among SportbookWire’s expert college basketball picks and predictions.

It does not always have to be a bet returning enough to finance a Disney movie. It is just plain fun to do the research, make the right call, and be on that side when millions of hoops viewers are stunned (or even mildly surprised) when upsets roll across all the screens where we take in games and results. Let’s identify 4 such plus-money plays in this week’s first-round games.

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Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:10 a.m. ET. All game times ET.

PENN STATE +2.5 (-102) vs. Texas A&M – Thursday, 7:25 p.m.

Penn State is one of several Big Ten teams not named Purdue worth keeping an eye on this first weekend. Teams from this conference are coming out of a meat-grinder, a high-quality round-robin that has leveled stats more so than the talents behind them.

With a 38.5% mark from 3-point-land (13th), the 10th-seeded Nittany Lions can bomb their way into a dogfight with the No. 7 Aggies. PSU also plays at a slowest-third tempo; some slowerteams that have beaten Texas A&M outright include Boise State, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Wofford.

Penn State does well to defend inside and hang onto the basketball, and those strengths fly in the face of what the Aggies want to do. The Lions are a live dog in this match-up.

DRAKE +2.5 (-112) vs. Miami – Friday, 7:25 p.m.

This contest is a 12-5 (DU-UM) Midwest Region battle in Albany. It features a Miami Hurricanes squad that may be getting a little too much credit coming out of a weaker-than-usual ACC squaring off with a Drake five on a roll. The Bulldogs are 13-1 over their last 14 games and have outscored foes by an average of 14.7 points while shooting 40.9% from distance over that stretch.

DU is an experienced bunch and one that plays responsible ball at both ends of the floor. Miami can sometimes struggle against teams that defend the perimeter well; that’s a Drake strength (30.6% 3-point defense (30th)).

Under coach Jim Larrañaga, the Hurricanes are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 NCAA tourney games.

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MONTANA STATE +8.5 (-110) vs. Kansas State – Friday, 9:40 p.m.

It’s cat-scratch fever in this East Region game in Greensboro on Friday. The 14th-seed Bobcats are taking on the No. 3 Wildcats, but peg this as more of a wild opportunity for more of a bracket run than just a 1-time upset. There are some weak spots in the potential 2nd and 3rd games should Montana State advance here.

Kansas State has logged back-to-back flat performances, and the Wildcats are just a few weeks removed from a similar stretch in February. MSU gets to the line a ton (9th most free throws per game nationally), and the Bobcats enter the East Region brackets having won 8 consecutive games.

FURMAN +5.5 (-110) vs. Virginia – Thursday, 12:40 p.m.

Furman — the No. 13 seed in the South Region — is a live wire due to the percentage of buckets it gets at the rim and from 3-point range. The Paladins gave tourney-entrant Penn State a game back in November (73-68 loss on Nov. 17). They swept Southern Conference titles in the regular season and circuit tournament, and they enter the Big Dance with a 14-1 record since Jan. 18.

Virginia can struggle offensively and is shooting just 28.4% from distance since Feb. 7. Under coach Tony Bennett, UVA is 7-13 ATS in NCAA Tournament play.

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