From the moment the NCAA men’s tournament field is revealed, analysts, college basketball fans and all who have a blank tournament bracket are eager to debate the most likely first-round upsets. Let’s take a look at some of the contenders.
I am going to focus on teams seeded No. 10 or lower, because while a No. 9 seed beating a No. 8 is technically an upset by seeding, it is not a differentiator in bracket contests. I am also going to highlight not just the most likely first-round upsets but also those that could provide value by differentiating your entire roster of picks from the competition.
For example, last year I highlighted No. 13 Furman to upset No. 4 Virginia and wrote that if the Paladins succeeded, “[No. 5] San Diego State could have a path all the way to the Final Four.” Guess what? Both things happened, making it one of my most successful brackets in years. (My colleague Matt Bonesteel also identified Virginia as a likely upset candidate on the night the brackets were revealed.)
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How do I find undervalued teams in the Big Dance? I look at the underlying analytics, such as the four factors of basketball as described by statistician Dean Oliver: shooting (particularly three-point shooting), rebounding, turnovers and the ability to get to the free throw line. I am also on the hunt for effective rebounding teams and opportunistic defenders that can create extra possessions, leading to more points. Slowing down the pace favors the underdog, too. After all, fewer possessions mean there are fewer chances for a more talented team to run up the score. And lastly, be on the lookout for favorites that rely heavily on three-pointers. If shooters go cold, that’s often a precursor to an upset.
With that in mind, here is a first-round upset in each region you’ll want to select in your bracket, listed in order of the chances the lower-seeded team pulls off a surprise. See also my Perfect Bracket to win your men’s pool, and Bonesteel’s best bets to win the tournament.
West Region
No. 11 New Mexico over No. 6 Clemson
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New Mexico takes care of the ball on offense and runs a solid game in transition, scoring over a point per possession, which ranks in the 91st percentile, per Synergy Sports. The Lobos also generate second-chance opportunities off offensive rebounds (averaging 1.1 points per putback), block shots and generate turnovers, skills that can lead to March upsets. Clemson, meanwhile, is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country (221st, per kenpom.com) and hardly creates any turnovers on defense.
East Region
No. 10 Drake over No. 7 Washington State
Washington State’s strengths include playing at a slow pace, grabbing offensive rebounds and keeping its opponents away from the three-point line. Drake doesn’t care about any of that. The Bulldogs are fine playing slow — they average 68 possessions per 40 minutes, 150th in the nation per analyst Ken Pomeroy’s data — and allow the lowest offensive rebounding rate in the nation (22 percent). The Bulldogs also don’t attempt an above-average rate of three-point shots relative to their field goal attempts, preferring to focus on scoring at the rim.
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The biggest mismatch should be in the post. Drake’s 6-foot-10 Darnell Brodie helps the Bulldogs score 1.1 points per possession on post-up plays (ranking in the 96th percentile in the country), including on passes out of the post, per Synergy Sports. It’s a play type that Washington State’s defense struggles with; the Cougars rank in just the 14th percentile. Drake led eventual Final Four team Miami at halftime in last year’s first round; this year, the Bulldogs should be able to finish the job.
South Region
No. 11 North Carolina State over No. 6 Texas Tech
North Carolina State needed to win five games in five days during the ACC tournament to have any chance of an NCAA tournament appearance. It did, claiming its first ACC title since 1987. Now the Wolfpack gets to face a Texas Tech squad with cracks in its foundation.
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Texas Tech has one of the most efficient offenses in the country, but much of that is thanks to a high volume of three-point shooting. The Red Raiders attempt 41 percent of their field goal attempts from behind the arc and convert a more-than-respectable 37 percent of them, ranking 47th in the nation. However, they are not nearly as impressive in the other factors that support March contenders, such as creating turnovers, grabbing or preventing offensive rebounds and getting to the free throw line. In fact, the three most similar tournament teams to this Texas Tech squad since 2008 all flamed out in the first round: Maryland in 2017, Oklahoma in 2014 and Iowa State in 2019, all as either a No. 5 or No. 6 seed.
Midwest Region
No. 12 McNeese State over No. 5 Gonzaga
Gonzaga’s seeding was a bit of a surprise to many bracketologists, including our own Patrick Stevens, who thought the Bulldogs would be a No. 7 seed. They are certainly balanced enough to justify being a high seed, but there is reason to think McNeese State could pull an upset in its first NCAA tournament appearance in 22 years.
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The Cowboys, led by former LSU coach Will Wade, are similarly well-balanced and remarkably tenacious on the defensive side of the ball, creating a turnover on nearly one-fourth of all defensive possessions (23 percent, sixth best in the country). They also funnel opponents away from the rim toward the three-point line; almost half of opponents’ field goal attempts have come from behind the arc. It’s easy to envision a scenario in which McNeese State not only gains extra possessions via turnovers but Gonzaga tries to do too much of its scoring from long distance, which is not always reliable, resulting in another memorable upset for a No. 12 seed over a No. 5.
