Mike Clay's guide to NFL player props (2024)

The 2021 NFL regular season is just around the corner, which means it's time to finalize your season-long player props.

I sat down and reviewed every individual player prop available via our partners at Caesars Sportsbook and picked out my favorite plays. They're listed below in no particular order.

For thoughts on player-prop strategy, check out our recent staff roundtable on the topic.

Amari Cooper, WR, Dallas Cowboys under 1,175.5 receiving yards (-110)

Cooper's prop stands out like a sore thumb considering that the seven-year vet has cleared this mark only once and he barely pulled it off (1,189 yards in 2019). That, despite almost always operating as his team's No. 1 wide receiver and having missed a grand total of three regular-season games in his career. Though he'll benefit from Dallas' high-volume pass offense, Cooper might not even be his team's top wideout this season, with 2020 first-round pick CeeDee Lamb seemingly taking over. Even after extrapolating for one extra game, only 12 wide receivers reached 1,276 yards last season, making this a fairly high bar to reach. Cooper's projection checks in at 1,065 yards.

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos over 925.5 receiving yards (-110)

At least statistically, Jeudy was one of the most inefficient wide receivers in the league as a rookie, ranking 86th out of 87 qualified wide receivers in catch rate (46%) and 82nd in yards per target (7.6). And still he produced 856 receiving yards. It's extremely likely that Jeudy's efficiency will improve (natural Year 2 leap) or at least regress to the mean in 2021. Additionally, his rookie-season target total of 112 only figures to rise in the first-round pick's second season. Drew Lock certainly could get Jeudy to 926 yards, but Teddy Bridgewater perhaps is a safer bet on the other end of the battery as he supported two 848-plus yard wide receivers in 2020, two of which reached 1,096 yards. Jeudy's projection is 1,039 yards.

Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Cleveland Browns over 5.5 TD receptions (-125)

Beckham has been on a 17-game pace of at least seven touchdowns in six of his seven NFL seasons. That includes three TD catches in six games last season. Beckham has been a mainstay near the goal line, ranking top 5 in end zone targets in both 2018 and 2019 before ranking eighth last season before his injury. Injuries have been a problem recently, but OBJ is healthy, still in his prime at age 28 and is working with a good offense that flipped from a run-first to pass-first unit in the second half of the 2020 season. His 14-game projection is 6.7.

Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers over 975.5 rush yards (-110)

The Steelers found themselves a feature back during the offseason when they spent a first-round pick on Harris. The 6-foot-1, 232-pound back is expected to immediately handle lead duties and has a relatively clear path to a top-5 finish in the league in carries. A conservative 15-game projection for Harris puts him at 1,117 yards on 259 carries. Sixteen rookie backs have reached this mark since 2010, including Jonathan Taylor and James Robinson in 2020. Pittsburgh's shaky and/or unproven offensive line is a red flag, but Harris' combination of talent and heavy volume should easily overcome that concern.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams under 29.5 pass TDs (-115)

Stafford has reached 30 pass TDs twice in his 12-year career and only once over the past nine seasons (2015). That, despite ranking top 12 in pass attempts in nine of those 12 seasons. Meanwhile, Sean McVay's offense has reached 30 pass TDs once in his four seasons with the Rams (28, 22 and 20 the other three). McVay has leaned heavily on the run near the goal line and, while that could change with Cam Akers injured and Stafford now under center, it's not something we can count on. Perhaps the Stafford/McVay marriage will lead to one of the best seasons for both, but the history here suggests we should lean the other direction. Stafford's projection is 26.0.

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions over 4,000.5 pass yards (-110)

The man traded for Stafford, Goff threw for at least 4,600 yards in both 2018 and 2019 before just missing the cut in 15 games last season (3,952). Granted, he changed teams during the offseason, but he's sure to benefit from a shaky Detroit defense that will force plenty of pass-friendly game scripts. He'll also benefit from a good offensive line, an extra game and minimal competition (former UDFAs David Blough and Tim Boyle are competing for No. 2 duties). Goff's projection is 4,365 yards, which is nearly 365 yards above this prop.

D'Andre Swift, RB, Detroit Lions under 7.5 rush TDs (-110)

More Lions? More Lions! Swift rushed for eight touchdowns as a rookie, which explains the high prop, but a closer look at his usage suggests he's in for lower output in 2021. Swift's expected TD total based on his usage was 5.4 and his 7.0% rush TD rate was third-highest among qualified backs. Swift scored on eight of his 14 carries within 6 yards of the goal line, which is nearly double the average hit rate in that area. League history tells us to expect regression to the mean. Swift figures to be heavily involved this season, but may split carries with Jamaal Williams while focusing primarily on the passing game. Also, Detroit is expected to be a low-scoring offense, which will keep Swift's TD opportunities in check. His projection checks in at 5.8.

Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons under 28.5 pass TDs (-110)

Ryan has fallen short of 29 pass TDs in six of the past eight seasons and threw 26 in both 2019 and 2020. This, despite operating in one of the league's pass-heaviest schemes throughout his career. Ryan will now move to Arthur Smith's run-first scheme. Smith's Tennessee offense cleared this line in both of his two seasons as the playcaller, but it took elite passing efficiency, which is not something we're assured of in Atlanta, especially after the team traded Julio Jones. Ryan's projection checks in at 25.2.

Calvin Ridley, WR, Atlanta Falcons under 9.5 TD receptions (-110)

Ryan's top target is one of the league's best wide receivers, but this is a lofty projection for a player with career TD totals of 10, seven and nine during his three pro seasons. He hit those marks in a very pass-heavy offense, but now switches to Arthur Smith's run-first scheme. Julio Jones is out of the way, but Ridley likely doesn't have much room for more volume after already ranking top 10 at wide receiver in targets, receptions, yardage, touchdowns and end zone targets last season. Also, 10 is a very big number. Only seven wideouts reached it last season, with four more scoring nine times. Ridley's projection is 7.6.

Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers under 5.5 rush TDs (-110)

This is a lofty line for a player who is entering his fifth NFL campaign and has yet to clear three rushing TDs in a single season. Ekeler managed only one rushing TD in 10 games last season. The issue has been a lack of opportunity, as he's registered 14 career carries inside the 5-yard line. That includes only two last season (60 RBs had more). Ekeler's 5-foot-9, 195-frame has limited him to a career-high of 132 carries and it's possible he never reaches 200 in his career. Even with a projected 188 carries, Ekeler's rush TD projection is 4.7.

Sam Darnold, QB, Carolina Panthers under 21.5 pass TDs (-110)

Darnold has been around for three seasons and has yet to clear this number. He threw 17 touchdowns as a rookie in 2018, a career-high 19 in 2019 and nine in 12 games last season. Darnold struggled with effectiveness (6.6 YPA and 60% completion percentage) and health (three-plus missed games all three seasons) during his time in New York. He's now in a better situation in Carolina, though Matt Rhule's and Joe Brady's offense accrued only 16 pass TDs last season, which ranked 29th in the league. Playcalling was the culprit, as Carolina was one of the league's run-heaviest teams near the goal line. Darnold's projection is 17.3.

Sack prop unders

There are a bunch of under bets on sack props that jump off the page. Consider any or all of these:

Calais Campbell, Baltimore Ravens under 6.5 sacks (+105)

Campbell cleared this mark five times in six seasons from 2013-18, but he fell to 6.5 in 2019 and 4.0 in 2020. Granted, he missed five games last season, but Campbell's 56% snap share when healthy is unlikely to rise as he enters his age-35 season. His 12.2% pass rush win rate last season was down considerably from the previous three seasons. Projection: 4.2

J.J. Watt, Arizona Cardinals under 8.5 sacks (+100)

Watt is now 32 years old and has gone over 5.0 sacks once in the past five seasons. He's also joining a new team and figures to play inside more often. Projection: 6.6

DeForest Buckner, Indianapolis Colts under 9.5 sacks (-110)

Buckner hit 9.5 on the nose last season while playing a hefty 74% of the snaps after clearing it only once during his previous four seasons. Ten is a high bar for a defensive tackle -- even a great one. Projection: 7.4

Jason Pierre-Paul, Tampa Bay Buccaneers under 9.5 sacks (+105)

He was right at 9.5 last season, but required a massive 88% snap share and he had reached the mark only once during the previous five seasons. The 32-year-old's playing time is likely to drop with first-round pick Joe Tryon impressing. Projection: 7.6

Josh Allen, Jacksonville Jaguars under 10.5 sacks (-110)

Allen had 10.5 sacks as a rookie in 2019, but only 2.5 in eight games last season. Only eight players reached 11.0 sacks last season, so this is simply too high of a bar. Projection: 8.7

Shaquil Barrett, Tampa Bay Buccaneers under 11.5 sacks (-125)

Only six players reached 12.0 sacks last season and Barrett was not one of them. He spiked with 19.5 sacks in 2019, but has otherwise never cleared 8.0 in a season. In fact, he averaged 3.5 sacks per season during his first four years in the league before the jump to 19.5 and 2019 and 8.0 showing in 2020. Projection: 10.0